The EU faces a significant challenge due to its deep economic ties with China, particularly evident in Germany’s heavy reliance on Chinese imports and exports.
A sudden disconnection from China is not feasible. The EU missed opportunities to invest in intra-union infrastructure while dealing with Brexit.
If, as experts predict, China invades Taiwan in the next two years, the European economy could suffer greatly. Imposing embargoes on China and shifting production and imports to other nations will be necessary. Even though Germany might resist these embargoes initially, they are crucial for the EU’s interests.
Just look at the strategic help the German government is giving to which industries. Currently it is basicly battery technology to protect against Chinese EVs, semiconductors for a similar reason and so forth. Fairly well targeted to reduce dependence on China. Obviously this is going to take years to really be done with, but it is happening.
At the same time the language is getting stronger and the German government has been warning companies from being too dependent on China. Most smaller ones are actually listening, but the big car makers are not and the current EV investigation is supported by the German government against the wishes of the German car industry. That might change, but thats the situation today.
Which experts predict that china invades taiwan in the next two years?
Very high likelihood of invasion as Xi would like to cement his legacy before he dies
Putin decided to cement his legacy by annexing Ukraine. He’s done a pretty effective job of messing up Russia in the attempt.
Not sure Xi cares about the state of his country after he goes into history books
In addition to CNN, NBC, CBC, Washington Post and MSNBC contributors, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu says it appears imminent.
So basically “the US said so”, okay.
The CBC is not the US and neither is Mr. Wu, but I’m pretty sure Al Jazeera and the BBC would also agree.
There’s a pretty wide international concensus on this topic, but I suppose a troll’s gotta troll. And here I am feeding you.
Arte did some really good documentaries about the peoples Republic China and the Republic of China aka the island Taiwan, once you know the background (E.g. Chinas promises of a united China within the next few years and their increasing aggressions) you will understand why that situation is dangerous af and a military invasion is very likely to happen sooner or later!
Check for example this article of Foreign Policy which summarize the whole China-Taiwan-Conflict and filling detterence of US politics in the Pacific: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/05/us-military-china-deterrence-taiwan-defense-war-east-asia-indo-pacific-strategy/
Thanks for the link. I am reasonably well aware of the conflict and no questions that china wants Taiwan. I was just surprised to hear that the sentiment shifted towards such a short timeframe.
For me this was more of a decade thing. Maybe once everyone has diversified away a bit from the reliance ok chips from Taiwan and thus less skin in the game
Which experts predict that china invades taiwan in the next two years?
Among these ‘experts’ are Xi himself and those around him.
