CBC poll aggregator puts the probabilities of next year’s federal election outcomes at Conservative majority–94%, Conservative minority–4%, Liberal government–1%.
I didn’t realize things were this bleak.
I feel some deja vu watching Trudeau refuse to step aside (early enough), just like with Biden.
A friend of mine thinks no one really wants to replace Trudeau as Liberal leader, for what’s most likely to be a decisive loss.
I posted an article with a headline about Trudeau’s GST holiday and $200 checks signalling that he’s out of ideas or that it ‘smacks of desperation’. Lemmy.ca didn’t seem to like it much. But I look at the gesture like, “that’s the best you can do for a fighting chance at forming a government?”
I don’t like their disinclination to truly represent the working classes, and the general loss of that representation in politics more widely at the moment (eg, shift towards conservativism and authoritinarianism).
Are we just defeatedly marching towards 4 years of a PP government? Realistically, can/will anything be done, even for a greater chance at a Conservative minority, never mind an ABC government?
Keep in mind those are the probabilities should an election occur today, not a prediction of how things will play out in a year’s time. There’s a whole lot of campaigning to happen and a few pieces of legislature (most notably people will begin to benefit from public dental).
That said, it is pretty bleak. IMO I think the liberals are keeping Trudeau so that he can be the fall guy and not taint whoever is next. I don’t think a weak coalition is entirely off the table though if CPC makes enough mistakes and leftists are strategic.
While obviously this helps the campaign, I think the primary point of this is to try and delay the impacts of the canpost strike by encouraging people to hold off on shopping until the GST free period. Another heavy action against a union could trigger a snap election, this is an attempt to avoid that, although whether this helps canpost or the workers is debatable.
This has been the plan for a couple years now. The LPC knows they can’t hold power forever, so they’re planning on giving up power for a few years and sacrificing Trudeau on the altar. This will give them a fresh start 4 years later to come back and return to power once PP shows how much of an idiot he can be, and how little he can actually do because the bad things happening aren’t actually caused by the federal government (at least not in a way that can be solved by the Conservatives)
It’s Canada PP well be in for 8 plus years depending on when elections get called. Then people well be complaining about the conservatives and how they’ll never vote for them again. Rinse and repeat.
Quite possibly, we’ll have to see. People may realize after 4 years that things have gotten even worse and want a faster change.