• 4 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • It is, population size has essentially no effect on statistical significance of a sample (other than amplifying it as you start to sample most of the population). 20,000 people is massive and will give you sub 1% confidence ranges. The difficulty is ensuring you have a representative sample (no one does) and correcting for the biases you do have in your sample.

    Do you really think the huge polling industry is unaware of basic statistics and your dividing the sample size by the population would come as a revaltion to them?















  • FWIW this kind of alarmist talk only lets people write off your comment as hysterical. Humans are not going to go extinct in the next 100 years, Canada isnt going to become hotter than Arabia and become unlivable.

    What we might (and even possibly the most likely scenario is to) get is wide scale societal breakdown, starvation of billions, mass migration of billions of those currently living in regions that become uninhabitable but dont starve, and the consequant resource wars that those entail. The future is bleak enough without making up even worse things that wont happen.