I feel some deja vu watching Trudeau refuse to step aside (early enough), just like with Biden.

I don’t think it’s analogous. The CBC poll aggregate is even more optimistic than 338 and 338 has said libs are sub 1% for a long time, since the start of the year:

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Biden was never in the pit that badly.

If an election was held tomorrow and the NDP weren’t competitive in my riding, I wouldn’t bother voting.