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Cake day: June 24th, 2023

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  • I remember being at aiche conference in 2018 I think, and there was a keynote speaker that helped draft the Paris agreement, talking about need to reduce co2 emissions and how they got their projections. Thus speaker was followed by speaker (VP of production or something) from Chvron or Shell and they basically presented that they see minimal to no change in oil demand or production, EVs will minimally reduce global consumption of oil and effectively for next 100 years they project business a usual for the most part…it was extremely depressing as I believe projections Shell/Chevron as they have the power behind them to maintain them, while the scientific community has to convince the average public to enact laws… Depressing…


  • That makes sense. Hopefully Ukrain gets the agms, and manages to breakthrough. I think that’s the only hope, as I agree with others that the west will get tired and start to slow down support for Ukrain which will eventually lead to Russian victory. It become a war of attrition, if Ukraine manage breakthrough or outlast Russian ability to put ppl to grinder then they will manage to win, but honestly it feels as though Putin is ready to put everything on the line to win this…


  • Would that also help with insane amount of mines, trenches and dumb ww2era weapons Russian is using to hold ground. Which seems to be the crux of the issue. Just like Ukrain shown, holding ground and digging in seems to be very effective strategy that might only be overcome with sheer numbers (and death…). Ukraine hope was finding a weak point in defense and punching through, but it seems that there are no real “weak” points so far. The question is, can allies provide Ukrain with weapons that can help with breaking through current defenses? So far it seems traditional weapons however advanced, don’t solve the issue of dumb mines, trenchs, and dug in positions for either side…



  • It’s not really a sensor issue, as much as having software that can interpret the sensor data and act on it. Cameras and lidar effectively provide same thing, distance to objects in 2d/3d. But u need software to process that data and identify where the road is, where little jonny is, and what to do…arguably, the distance measuring problem has been solved for a while with lidar or with cameras, it’s object identification and reaction to that info that’s not solved. You can’t really solve it with traditional if/else programming, while AI gives you only a probability of what something is or what action to do…so the problem is hard.

    But ntsb/dmv whatever needs to come up with a way to test and classify autonomous driving software…probably doing real world test and identifying edge cases where it fails.


  • This seems to be a key point ppl miss. There is still quiet a big question if cdr and storage can be net negative…for example one place we want to store co2 is in saline basins, but this will require disposal and treatment of the brines removed from the basin…which might emit might end up emmiting as much co2 as ends up being stored in the saline basin. There is a paper on this issue…


  • CO2 to syngas to hydrocarbon fuels is probably a better carbon zero process, considering we will need to do a ton of cdr anyway…although doubt energetics and economics would be great. Hydrogen, just like biofuels today are anything but carbon neutral, and efficient electrolysis might never happen. Hydrogen production will also face water shortage issues and in general electrolysis requires pretty low tds water which is not trivial to source…not sure what’s best way to get carbon zero airplanes honestly…