Ukrainian forces staged an overnight ambush on a Russian convoy 25 miles inside the international border in Russia’s Kursk province, as the Kremlin declared a federal emergency and said it was transferring extra forces to try to snuff out a four-day incursion that has badly damaged its credibility.
A video circulated by Russian military bloggers showed a destroyed convoy, with bodies just visible inside some trucks, on the E38 east-west highway at Oktyabrskoe, a location far deeper inside Russia than any previously confirmed fighting since Ukraine’s forces crossed the border on Tuesday.
Commentators said the attack, reminiscent of Ukrainian attacks on Russian troops besieging Kyiv in the first weeks of the war, demonstrated an effective hit-and-run strategy, but the incursion appeared likely to draw an escalating response from the Kremlin, and its overall outcome remains profoundly uncertain.
If I were the Ukrainians, I’d send more reinforcements and keep the beachhead up. Russia can have their land back when they give back the parts of Ukraine they illegally annexed in 2014 and 2021.
As a completely uncredentialed internet commenter, this looks like true maneuver warfare in action. The goal is destroying the ability of enemy forces rather than capturing territory. A subtle but important distinction. Any territory taken should be in furtherance of the main goal, and if holding the territory distracts from that it is to be abandoned.
(If numbers are anything close to believable) this has been happening inside Ukraine where defensible positions are held by Ukrainians to cause huge losses to attacking Russian forces, yet the Ukrainians don’t immediately press the local advance often to take back disputed territory. A big exception was Ukraine’s initial, and I think it will come out as disastrous armored offensive early in the war, probably a result of over confidence in thinking they’d whittled down the Russian forces that early. Looks like lessons learned as Ukraine has become much more cautious of large scale offensives. I believe last year they were assaulting Russian defensive lines inside Ukraine but (if numbers are to be believed) they were inflicting more losses on the defenders than they were taking, which is insane for assaulting static positions. Russia seems to have held those positions by simply pouring fresh troops into them over and over, sacrificing men to prevent the lines on the map from moving. Years of those kinds of losses seem to be at the point where Russia can’t pivot to defend itself in any kind of reasonable time. Even if the Ukrainians pull out of the Russian territory, the damage by showing what they are able to do is done.
In a funny twist, at least from the snippets of news reporting (which I stress we should always be willing to rethink) it sounds like the Ukraine incursion is using a sort of variant of “deep battle” by bypassing enemy defenses with the majority of its forces. This is funny because early in the war the massive Russian tank losses from their disorganized dollar store thunder run were explained as expected deep battle losses by pro-Russians on the internet.
I read that this attack isn’t meant to keep the territory occupied and is more of wake up call for the Russians.
Yeah, the Kremlin has to look strong right now, so they need to scramble to put together a force to deal with this, and the Russian army isn’t nimble.
Putin and his Kremlin stooges has to avoid windows now. Finally!
For why? What does that achieve?
IDK anything about military strategy but surely this type of attack forces Russia to re-deploy.
As in, they can’t have as many troops in offensive positions because they need to defend their own borders.
It’s like the neighborhood bully is out slapping around all the smaller kids until he realizes a few of them snuck into his house and are putting their balls all over his prized drum set.
Maybe that the plan and stopping the oil line to Hungary to pressure them is how they think they will get in the EU.