Donald Trump’s running mate JD Vance has dug in on his claim Haitians in an Ohio community are abducting and eating pets, even as the state’s GOP governor and other officials insist there is no evidence of such behavior.
But the salacious claim was easily debunked.
“The Vance campaign provided the Wall Street Journal with a police report to prove their claims about cat-eating Haitians in Springfield. The WSJ spoke to the woman who filed it, who said she later found her cat alive and well in her basement. She also apologized to her Haitian neighbors.” Justin Baragona posted to X with a link to a story in The Wall Street Journal.
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And here we are, over a week after the debate. They’re still harping on Haitian immigrants in 1 town, while Harris is blazing up the campaign trail, yet polls are still concerningly close.
This is how scary this election is becoming
As I recall, in terms of the electoral college, neither Biden nor Harris have, at any point, been projected to beat Trump. It’s not “becoming” scary, it’s been scary for quite some time.
There’s no one single model doing projections.
Five Thirty Eight’s, which is one prominent one, has favored Harris somewhat for a while.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Harris wins 64 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 36 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Nate Silver – who started Five Thirty Eight and is now off doing his own thing and runs a fork of the model that Five Thirty Eight used to run – had them, last I looked, had Harris and Trump at about about even chances.
Both Silver’s model and Five Thirty Eight’s model agreed that the debate improved Harris’s chances.
Important to note that Nate Silver works for Peter Theil, who has donated heavily to Trump pacs, and is responsible for giving us JD Vance.
Do you have a source on Silver working for Thiel?
Interesting.
Tl;Dr: Nate Silver is an “advisor” to Polymarket, a gambling platform based on real world events. Peter Thiel is an investor for Polymarket.
It seems like a stretch to say that “Nate Silver works for Thiel,” but it’s pretty sad to see Nate Silver working for a likely illegal crypto scam.
It seems like a stretch to say that “Nate Silver works for Thiel.”
Nate Silver is a paid advisor to a company that Peter Thiel runs, it’s not a stretch at all, wake up.
You should go through crunchbase. Anyone in tech has worked at a place with evil investors. They just care whether you hit your numbers after finding product market fit. I’m a conspiracy theorist. This is not it.
Just a clarification, Silver doesn’t run a fork of the old 538 model. He took the model with him. 538 developed their own after he left.
Five-thirty-eight is a joke. Who did Five-thirty-eight project to win in 2016? Yeah.
Who did professor Allan Lichtman predict to win in 2016? The winner! He uses a strange science technique that have retrospectively lined up with presidential winners since 1860. He has an impressive tract record of ten successful predictions - note he predicted Gore in 2000 but there is very persuasive evidence that Gore actually did win had the vote counts been honestly counted. Hence the Brooks Brothers riot that threw the election to the Supreme Court.
Republicans are now positioning for that to happen again in 2024.This is the ignorant “I don’t understand statistics” take. If Nate Silver had given Clinton a 100% chance to win, then maybe you’d have some sort of point. But, in fact, the 538 projection gave Trump a much higher chance than most of the major election models, to the point that I remember Nate having to defend himself against angry people on Twitter over and over. He wrote an article ahead of the election pointing out that if an outcome has a 30% chance of happening, not only is it possible, but in fact you expect it to happen 3 in 10 times. I was very nervous on Election Day 2016 specifically because I had been closely following 538 projections.
This post is further evidence that everyone should be required to take a statistics course. It’s like saying “statistical probability says there is a 66.6% chance of me rolling this six-sided die and getting a 1, 2, 3, or 4, but I rolled a 5, so that model is WRONG!!”
I hope you can see how dumb that sounds.
Additionally, Lichtman referred to the popular vote in his book, essay on the topic (neither of which I assume you’ve read), and in all previous predictions. So he was actually wrong about his 2016 prediction given Trump lost the popular vote, much though Lichtman has tried to revise history since then.
Crazy that is already 60% instead of 64% since you posted this. No deeper comment there other than just noting how fluid this election is. We are one Harris mistake (and remember, mistake tolerance for Harris is significantly lower than Trump; Trump is basically one long series of mistakes that has little effect on his numbers; if Harris mispronounces Gaza once she loses 5%), one unexpected event, one butterfly-wing flap from those numbers going to even or worse.
40% of the time Trump wins. 40% of the time, an authoritarian leader assumes the presidency of the most powerful country in the world.
I stand by my statement that no Harris supporter should feel confident or comfortable. That’s… frighteningly high.
I can’t believe how fucking racist this country is. 20 years ago if a candidate did this, they’d be given the kiss of death by the media and made to drop out.
Hell Howard Dean lost because he screamed funny. This is abhorrent.
Hell Howard Dean lost because he screamed funny.
Dean was already losing. The scream perhaps was the final nail in the coffin.
Are polls still done by landline?
We need a political game show akin to “Name that Tune” but called “Dubunk that Claim”.
A disclaimer appears at the start of the show and after each commercial break reminding viewers that all claims presented are false.
Contestants hear each claim and buzz in with how many statements they need to debunk the claim and then prove it false. The goal is to debunk the claim in as few statements as possible.
Winner gets bragging rights, and we all win.
So a gameshow that has endless material just based on the last 10 years. I like the title Debunk that Trump
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini’s_law
We always lose when engaging with these people
We just need to move people who believe shit like this to another version of the planet.
you’re so close
What proof? The other day he literally said he created the story https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/jd-vance-make-up-pet-eating-story-haitian-rcna171326
Yes, but now he’s lying again
*creating again
I want to know when that report was filed. “I can’t find my cat, therefore my Haitian neighbors stole it to eat” is the kind of statement dreamed up by the utterly deranged, unless the idea was already in the water supply because a vice presidential candidate was saying it in interviews ahead of a national debate.
This shitshow of an election is really getting on my nerves. This is not news, this is garbage speak out of a garbage person. And I have to read all these garbage headlines here because it is very much possibe that these garbage people will get elected. How low can you sink, america?
I have a set of uBlock Origin filters I turn on in the “my filters” tab when this garbage gets too exhausting.
discuss.tchncs.de##article.post-container:has(.post-title:has-text("Biden")) discuss.tchncs.de##article.post-container:has(.post-title:has-text("Trump")) discuss.tchncs.de##article.post-container:has(.post-title:has-text("Harris")) discuss.tchncs.de##article.post-container:has(.post-title:has-text("Supreme Court")) discuss.tchncs.de##article.post-container:has(.post-title:has-text("JD Vance")) discuss.tchncs.de##article.post-container:has(.post-title:has-text("J.D. Vance")) discuss.tchncs.de##article.post-container:has(.post-title:has-text("J. D. Vance")) discuss.tchncs.de##article.post-container:has(.post-title:has-text("Election"))Replace with your Lemmy instance domain and keywords of your choice!
Aren’t you worried about accidentally blocking information about Bob Vance, Vance Refrigeration?
It’s a risk I’m willing to take!
I went to a bar with some cousins last night and the Tigers game was on some of the TVs. Half the commercials were political ads. There was no sound and CC wasn’t on but sweet Jesus I was so sick of it. I’m trying to avoid watching sports in general just because it’s gonna be nothing but the same crap for the next 2 months
…and the text messages, and the canvassers, and the snail mails, and the billboards (if you live where they are allowed), and and and.
Wish it would all just go away, I’ll vote how I want despite all the waste of media.
Politicians should get some sanctioned debates and interviews on CSPAN and that’s it.
It’s all because the US has a never ending election.
For a lot of countries, the average election campaign is 30 days.
This is how Nazi Germany happened and we’re blindly walking right into it.
JD Vance is a lying worthless being.
I’m going to file a police report claiming JD Vance murdered and cannibalized a family of Haitian immigrants. That’s proof it actually happened, right?
The only surprising part of any of this is that this asshole apologized to her neighbor.
From her perspective at least, could’ve easily been “I’m sorry you were offended” or even riddled with slurs for all we know.
Maybe I’m passing judgement too harshly but this fits my mental model of someone who doesn’t finish thoroughly searching their house or neighborhood before filing a police report against their neighbors.
why are they doubling down on this i don’t get it
Because it all boils down to Trump’s ego.
Saying it made him look like an utter fool. So his enablers will do whatever they have to do to prove that he was “correct”.
It’s honestly frightening.
It’s quite literally how children react to being wrong.
Literally dead cat method.
Distract you with an issue, to divert attention from a) shit debate performance, b) lack of policies
This. Everyone posting this is allowing Trump and Vance to control the narrative again.
Surely this will change their minds.
/s, unfortunatelyTheir base believes it and it riles people up at Trump rallies. That’s why.
What an actual piece of shit.
Somehow Vance is a bigger piece of shit than a woman who told the cops Haitians stole her cat
I mean, she is just a run of the mill, racist, shit bag. Vance is a racist shit bag with power.
She’s not run of the mill - she admitted she was wrong and apologized. Most of them are like Vance and just BS harder.
Yeah, she is several tiers above Vance on the “quality human” scale regardless of whatever prejudices of hers fed into the issue.
She got herself in a public shit show that was way beyond her. I guarantee you, had that not happened, she would have just stayed silent.
Perspective of a European: Main problem of the USA are “pet-eating” Haitians lol… Politics here sucks but still… could be worse…
We’re becoming numb to the insanity here.
And that numbness is the point. All this crazy is exhausting, and we’re gonna be completely burned out and unable to engage in a serious political battle when the scarier elements of fascism kick in.
Oh that’s the main problem of JD Vance because he doesn’t care that the state he represents is struggling. The left’s main problem is the fascists
He sort of already gave away the validity of his claims when he said he didn’t mind making them up.
A potential future vice president can’t even do proper research. Trump truly brings in the best of the best.
It does not matter, maga will say it’s fake news, they believe what their lord and savior trump says. He has a huge voting base and nothing that he does will deter them from casting their vote onto him.
They know it’s a lie. This is literally Dead Cat politics
Can’t wait to send this to my Trumper dad who keeps shouting fake news
