Nate Silver’s essay discusses the limitations of gut instincts in election predictions, emphasizing that while polls in battleground states show a tight race, no one should trust their “gut” predictions. Silver’s “gut” leans toward Trump, but he stresses that polls are complex and often subject to errors like nonresponse bias. Both Trump and Harris could overperform based on various polling dynamics. He also warns of potential polling herding, which could lead to a larger-than-expected victory for either candidate. Ultimately, the outcome remains highly uncertain.

  • linearchaos@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    Well democracy, we had a good run buddy, I’m off to find a nice quiet corner of the earth where I can live out the rest of my days and my family can prosper a little ways until the nuclear winter falls